Lately the hottest economic topic on Congolese
lips was the issue of bigger notes. From waiters to economists, everyone was
debating on the effects on inflation and/or local currency depreciation that
those new notes would have.
Before giving my own opinion on this matter,
let me provide you with a little bit of context. The data are provided by the Central
Bank of Congo (BCC).
When the Congolese Franc (CDF) was launched on
the 30th of June 1998, CDF 100 represented $ 72.5. At that time the biggest
note was CDF 100. Until the 2nd of July 2012, and the release of the
new notes, the biggest note was CDF 500. However, this note only represents 60
cents of a dollar today. To purchase a good of $ 72.5 in 1998, you only need a
note of CDF 100, today you need 133 notes of CDF 500. My friends, amateurs of
good champagne, will need around 360 notes of CDF500 for a good bottle!!! No wonder
why the local currency is naturally replaced by the USD in Congolese daily
transactions...
Regarding the inflation concerns, the BCC plans
to release CDF 8.9 billion ($11 million) of new notes while withdrawing from
the market CDF 17 billion ($19 m) during the month of July. This will prevent
an increase of the liquidity in circulation. To avoid, merchants to round up
prices, the BCC will also ensure small notes do not disappear from the market.
Regarding the CDF depreciation worries, the BCC
is ready to intervene on the market and use its international reserves (USD 1.3
billion) to do so.
So where are we 11 days after the release of
those notes???
The exchange rate remains fairly stable with a small apreciation of the CDF (+0.3%) . The inflation remains below the 8%. Although it is a
little bit early to claim victory, I argue that if the government continues to
manage this process with the same rigour, the apocalypse on the economy predicted
by my hairdresser and several economists won’t happen.
I argue that if we want this currency to play its
‘legitimate’ role in this economy; this is a good first step. But the authorities
should not stop there on their quest for economy ‘de-dollarization’. The next
logical step to me should be to oblige ALL companies to pay their taxes in
local currency. This will increase the demand of CDF by large companies and
increase its value...
Time will tell if the BCC has won its bet. There
is a huge lack of trust toward the Congolese authorities and this represents a
good opportunity to demonstrate that they can be trustworthy.
I hope they will grab it...
3 comments:
Pour moi j'estime que l'emission de cas grosses coupures de billets de banque devrait aider a accroitre l'offre de monnaie dans un environnement economique marque par l'insuffisance trop remarquable de la monnaie nationale en faveur d'une dollarisation excessive de l'economie nationale.
Mais mon inquietude reside du fait que je n'ai pas du tout confiance a nos autorites politiques car c'est dans leur habitude de prendre de decision a court terme.
N'oublions pas qu'une politique monetaire expansive entraine toujours une augmentation du niveau general de prix (inflation)lorsqu'elle n'est pas bien encadre. Esperons que ca ne sera pas le cas pour la RDC.
Christian Domayi
Pour moi j'estime que l'emission de ces grosses coupures de billets de banque devrait aider a accroitre l'offre de monnaie dans un environnement economique marque par l'insuffisance trop remarquable de la monnaie nationale en faveur d'une dollarisation excessive de l'economie nationale.
Mais mon inquietude reside du fait que je n'ai pas du tout confiance a nos autorites politiques car c'est dans leur habitude de prendre de decision a court terme.
N'oublions pas qu'une politique monetaire expansive entraine toujours une augmentation du niveau general de prix (inflation)lorsqu'elle n'est pas bien encadree. Esperons que ca ne sera pas le cas pour la RDC.
Christian Domayi
Je suis tout a fait d'accord avec toi Christian. J'essaie d’être optimiste même si l'histoire plaide en ta faveur je te l'accorde...
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